As we dive into the New Year, the debate over the fiscal cliff has come to an end, but an even more important one is about to occur… the debt ceiling. If you thought the volatility we saw during the peak of the fiscal cliff debate was impressive, it most likely will pale in comparison to what awaits us on the horizon.
During the theatrics surrounding the fiscal cliff, we saw the VIX cross the 20 mark, which at the time it seemed like we were in a volatile market. Headlines started to appear everywhere regarding the high volatility, but as I pointed out at the time, historically speaking it was not really that high.
In that article I mentioned the level of volatility that we saw during the last debt ceiling debate, a time in which volatility inched above 45 and the market tanked. There is no reason to believe we will see anything different this time around, and it will make the reading of 20 we saw last month look small.
The reason is that the fiscal cliff debate featured headline discussing how the nation would fall into a recession had a deal not been reached. As bad as that would have been, the headlines were not nearly as terrifying as what we are about to see regarding the debt ceiling. Both political parties are going to try to take a stand, and we will that Social Security checks will not go out and veterans will be in jeopardy of not receiving their checks… leading to the same sort of panic we saw during the 2011 debt ceiling debate which devastated stocks amid a cloud of high volatility.
If you look back at a market chart during the summer of 2011, you can easily spot where the debt ceiling debate took place. The drop was substantial, but what is really important to note is that the losses were made back pretty quickly. It took a couple of months for investors to recoup their losses, but generally speaking the drop was just a blip on the radar.