Let’s reminisce a bit, shall we? Let’s think back to that time when the entire stock market went parabolic for no apparent reason. No—not the times when it subsequently crashed, wiping out a huge percentage of the net worth of ordinary investors who had been seduced, day by careless day, into putting far too high a percentage of their stock portfolios into high-risk/high-return stocks which had seemed for years and years to be no-risk/high-return stocks. Let’s talk about the time when the parabolic market just kept going somehow more parabolic, and everyone who was made rich on paper got even more rich, retired that way, and lived out the rest of their lives in utter contentment and without a single regret.
What? You can’t remember that time? Well, it’s probably because that time never happened, and I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but it is entirely possible that it isn’t happening now, either. As I see it, we have an already overpriced market that has risen ten to fifteen percent, largely on the promise of a corporate tax cut which may not come at all, which, if it does come, will almost certainly come in a somewhat diluted or dialed-down form, and which, even if it were to come in exactly the form advertised wouldn’t have nearly the effect anticipated. Add to that an economy that has slowed from walk to crawl and a job market that suddenly appears to be considerably weaker that everyone has been thinking it was for the past three months.