I’ll Wake Up, Probably Hating Myself
The bottom line is that expecting a severe correction in the U.S. stock market, much less an actual crash, during a period of accelerating growth will leave you hating yourself.
Best case, you’ll miss out on great risk-adjusted returns, such as those delivered by tech stocks. Worst case, you’ll join the uninformed who are currently shorting small caps, and get your face ripped off playing Captain Market-Top Caller.
Rather than joining the flock and making your own Night with My Ex-type mistake, stay data dependent, process driven and risk conscious.
The data say U.S. growth is accelerating. The process says that when growth is accelerating you should be long, strong and down to be as long U.S. equities as your risk tolerance will allow. And risk consciousness says that you should favor tech and small caps over slow growth assets like utilities and Treasuries.