Chinese search giant Baidu (BIDU) will get its change to impress Wall Street on Monday when it reports earnings for the fourth quarter. The company has a solid history of reporting better than expected earnings, and that trend is expected to continue when it reports its fourth quarter results.
Going into Monday's report, analysts expect the company to show earnings of $0.91 per share, which would make a pretty impressive 82% increase from the same period last year. For its third quarter the company showed an equally impressive 94% revenue growth, and there is little reason to doubt that the company will once again match or exceed estimates for the fourth quarter.
One of the reasons Baidu has been so strong was the March 2010 decision by search engine giant Google (GOOG) to pull out of the Chinese search market in reaction to censorship and privacy issues. In the wake of Google's decision, Baidu has been able to thrive. Google moved its China search services to Hong Kong which means that searches on google.cn are redirected to google.cn.hk. As a result, its share of the market has fallen from its peak of 35% down to 16.7%.
The search advertising market in China has been growing rapidly and Baidu has been the primary beneficiary of that growth. During the fourth quarter, China's search engine market grew by a remarkable 70%.
The reason some analysts are concerned that Baidu will be unable to meet expectations this quarter is speculation that Baidu's share of China's market fell about 1% in the fourth quarter. Not everyone agrees with this assumption. Beijing-based market research firm Analysis International reported that Baidu’s control of the market actually grew slightly in the quarter. The main question then is what happened to the company’s market share during the quarter.
The company said in a statement that it is "very confident" that its quarterly earnings will be in-line with its guidance. Baidu forecast revenues between $691.4 million and $711 million, which at the mid-point reflects a year over year increase of 88%.
Despite falling off a little during the second half of 2011, the stock remains a favorite of Wall Street, with traders willing to pay a lot for its shares. The company is currently trading with a P/E ratio of 49, which is almost unheard of its today's market. Why are traders willing to pay such a premium on the stock? It's simple… growth. The company has a five year sales growth of 78%. Its five year EPS growth is 95%, and its forward five year earnings growth is forecast to be 47%. With such strong growth numbers, it is easy to understand why the stock is trading at such a high P/E. The downside is that should the company miss its quarterly estimate, the sell-off could be sharp.
Baidu will report its quarterly results after the market close on Monday, and you can expect fireworks whether the numbers are better or worse than expected.